Predictive History is an independent tracker for the geopolitical predictions made in @PredictiveHistory's Game Theory lecture series on YouTube. We extract specific, falsifiable claims from each lecture and track them against real-world events.
Each lecture transcript is analyzed to identify specific, time-bound predictions about geopolitical events. We only include claims that are falsifiable — vague statements like “tensions will increase” are excluded. Each prediction is tagged with relevant topics and linked to its source lecture.
Accuracy is calculated as verified / (verified + wrong). Pending predictions are excluded from the denominator since their outcome is unknown. This means accuracy will change as pending predictions resolve.
This site is not affiliated with @PredictiveHistory or the professor. It is maintained by fans of the lecture series who wanted a structured way to track the predictions. Content is used with permission.